Modeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the Heliophysics System Observatory

We present an advance toward accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the terrestrial planets, including Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over two thirds of a solar cycle of observations with the Heliophysics System Observatory. We validate modeling results of 1337 CMEs observed with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imagers (HI) (science data) from 8 years of observations by five in situ observing spacecraft. We use the self-similar expansion model for CME fronts assuming 60 degrees longitudinal width, constant speed, and constant propagation direction. With these assumptions we find that 23%-35% of all CMEs that were predicted to hit a certain spacecraft lead to clear in situ signatures, so that for one correct prediction, two to three false alarms would have been issued. In addition, we find that the prediction accuracy does not degrade with the HI longitudinal separation from Earth. Predicted arrival times are on average within 2.6 +/- 16.6 h difference of the in situ arrival time, similar to analytical and numerical modeling, and a true skill statistic of 0.21. We also discuss various factors that may improve the accuracy of space weather forecasting using wide-angle heliospheric imager observations. These results form a first-order approximated baseline of the prediction accuracy that is possible with HI and other methods used for data by an operational space weather mission at the Sun-Earth L5 point. Plain Language Summary Solar storms are formed by incredibly powerful explosions on the Sun and travel as clouds of plasma threaded by magnetic fields through the solar system. Depending on their propagation direction, they may impact planets such as Earth, where they elicit colorful aurorae or, in very seldom cases, can lead to power failures with potentially tremendous economical and societal effects, thus posing a serious natural hazard. In this work, we have shown how well the solar storm impact can be forecasted when using a special type of instrument that can actually image the solar storms as they propagate toward the planets and even as they sweep over them. Our analysis includes two thirds of a solar cycle with 8 years of data, and spacecraft at Mercury, Venus, Earth, and in the solar wind to check on the correctness of our predictions. We could forecast the arrival time within +/- 16 h, and for one correct impact there are two to three false alarms. This forms a new baseline for the science of space weather prediction. Clearly, the modeling should be further improved to be used on a daily basis for a space weather mission to the Sun-Earth L5 point.Peer reviewe

Altering the Motivational Function of Nicotine through Conditioning Processes

The collection of chapters in this 55th Nebraska Symposium on Motivation Volume clearly highlights that effective strategies for reducing compulsive tobacco use will require a multifaceted approach in which genetic, neurobiological, individual, and cultural factors are considered. It is difficult, if not impossible, to predict where the next important breakthrough will come from (Bevins & Bardo, 2004; Dethier, 1966; Laidler, 1998). Accordingly, further research that extends and challenges current theory and practice at each of these levels of analysis is needed. The continuing focus of our research program, and the topic of the present chapter, is on the role of Pavlovian conditioning processes involving nicotine. Theoretical and empirical approaches to nicotine dependence that include Pavlovian conditioning processes have lead to important advances in our understanding and treatment of chronic tobacco use (e.g., see Rose, Chapter 8 and Tiffany, Warthen, & Goedecker, Chapter 10 in current Volume). These approaches conceptualize the drug as an unconditioned stimulus (US) or reinforcer. That is, the pharmacological effects of the drug (e.g., reward, analgesia, psychomotor stimulation) enter into an association with stimuli that reliably co-occur with these effects (e.g., paraphernalia, situational cues). Later exposure to these conditioned stimuli (CSs) can evoke conditioned responses (CRs) that increase the chances an individual will seek drug. More recently, we have suggested that the interoceptive stimulus effects of nicotine might also serve as a CS for other appetitive non-drug outcomes (i.e., USs) and/or a stimulus that occasions whether other CS-US associations will or will not occur (i.e., an occasion setter or facilitator; see Bevins & Palmatier, 2004). We have further suggested that such an associative learning history could impact the tenacity of nicotine addiction—e.g., shorten the time between experimentation and dependence, increase the difficulty of quitting, make sustaining abstinence more difficult, etc. At the current time these suggestions are speculative. With this in mind, the present chapter will review the research in this area, as well as highlight some of its historical precursors and suggest some possible future directions for research. In doing so, hopefully the reader will gain an appreciation for how this approach might lead to further insight into how Pavlovian conditioning processes can alter the motivational function of nicotine in a manner that contributes to chronic tobacco use

Distorted Views of Biodiversity: Spatial and Temporal Bias in Species Occurrence Data

Boakes et al. compile and analyze a historical dataset of 170,000 bird sightings over two centuries and show how changing trends in data gathering may confound a true picture of biodiversity change

Sensitivity of Metrics of Phylogenetic Structure to Scale, Source of Data and Species Pool of Hummingbird Assemblages along Elevational Gradients

Patterns of phylogenetic structure of assemblages are increasingly used to gain insight into the ecological and evolutionary processes involved in the assembly of co-occurring species. Metrics of phylogenetic structure can be sensitive to scaling issues and data availability. Here we empirically assess the sensitivity of four metrics of phylogenetic structure of assemblages to changes in (i) the source of data, (ii) the spatial grain at which assemblages are defined, and (iii) the definition of species pools using hummingbird (Trochilidae) assemblages along an elevational gradient in Colombia. We also discuss some of the implications in terms of the potential mechanisms driving these patterns. To explore how source of data influence phylogenetic structure we defined assemblages using three sources of data: field inventories, museum specimens, and range maps. Assemblages were defined at two spatial grains: coarse-grained (elevational bands of 800-m width) and fine-grained (1-km2 plots). We used three different species pools: all species contained in assemblages, all species within half-degree quadrats, and all species either above or below 2000 m elevation. Metrics considering phylogenetic relationships among all species within assemblages showed phylogenetic clustering at high elevations and phylogenetic evenness in the lowlands, whereas those metrics considering only the closest co-occurring relatives showed the opposite trend. This result suggests that using multiple metrics of phylogenetic structure should provide greater insight into the mechanisms shaping assemblage structure. The source and spatial grain of data had important influences on estimates of both richness and phylogenetic structure. Metrics considering the co-occurrence of close relatives were particularly sensitive to changes in the spatial grain. Assemblages based on range maps included more species and showed less phylogenetic structure than assemblages based on museum or field inventories. Coarse-grained assemblages included more distantly related species and thus showed a more even phylogenetic structure than fine-grained assemblages. Our results emphasize the importance of carefully selecting the scale, source of data and metric used in analysis of the phylogenetic structure of assemblages

Transmission of highly virulent community-associated MRSA ST93 and livestock-associated MRSA ST398 between humans and pigs in Australia

Pigs have been recognised as a reservoir of livestock associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (LA-MRSA) in Europe, Asia and North America. However, little is known about the presence and distribution of MRSA in the Australian pig population and pig industry. This study describes the presence, distribution and molecular characteristics of the human adapted Australian CA-MRSA ST93 isolated from pigs, people, and the environment within a piggery. Isolates were subjected to antibiotic susceptibility testing, DNA microarray, whole genome sequencing, multi locus sequence typing, virulence and resistance gene characterization and phylogenetic analysis. MRSA were isolated from 60% (n = 52) of farm workers where 84% of isolates returned ST93 and the rest ST398. Of the thirty-one pig isolates tested further, an equal number of ST398 and ST93 (15 each) and one as ST30-V were identified. Four of six environmental isolates were identified as ST93 and two as ST398. This study has identified for the first time in Australia the occurrence of CA-MRSA ST93 and LA-MRSA ST398 amongst farm workers, pigs, and the farm environment. Comparative genome analysis indicates that ST398 is likely to have been introduced into Australia from Europe or North America. This study also reports the first linezolid resistant MRSA isolated in Australia

Genetic variability and structure of jaguar (Panthera onca) in Mexican zoos

ArtículoGenealogical records of animals (studbook) are created to avoid reproduction between closely related individuals, which could cause inbreeding, particularly for such endangered species as the Panthera onca (Linnaeus, 1758). Jaguar is the largest felid in the Americas and is considered an important ecological key species. In Mexico, wild jaguar populations have been significantly reduced in recent decades, and population decline typically accompany decreases in genetic variation. There is no current census of captive jaguars in Mexico, and zoos do not follow a standardized protocol in breeding programs based on genetic studies. Here, we emphasise the importance of maintaining an adequate level of genetic variation and propose the implementation of standardised studbooks for jaguars in Mexico, mainly to avoid inbreeding. In addition, achieving the aims of studbook registration would provide a population genetic characterisation that could serve as a basis for ex situ conservation programmes

Quantifying Individual Variation in the Propensity to Attribute Incentive Salience to Reward Cues

If reward-associated cues acquire the properties of incentive stimuli they can come to powerfully control behavior, and potentially promote maladaptive behavior. Pavlovian incentive stimuli are defined as stimuli that have three fundamental properties: they are attractive, they are themselves desired, and they can spur instrumental actions. We have found, however, that there is considerable individual variation in the extent to which animals attribute Pavlovian incentive motivational properties (“incentive salience”) to reward cues. The purpose of this paper was to develop criteria for identifying and classifying individuals based on their propensity to attribute incentive salience to reward cues. To do this, we conducted a meta-analysis of a large sample of rats (N = 1,878) subjected to a classic Pavlovian conditioning procedure. We then used the propensity of animals to approach a cue predictive of reward (one index of the extent to which the cue was attributed with incentive salience), to characterize two behavioral phenotypes in this population: animals that approached the cue (“sign-trackers”) vs. others that approached the location of reward delivery (“goal-trackers”). This variation in Pavlovian approach behavior predicted other behavioral indices of the propensity to attribute incentive salience to reward cues. Thus, the procedures reported here should be useful for making comparisons across studies and for assessing individual variation in incentive salience attribution in small samples of the population, or even for classifying single animals